The mood at my winter seminars changed dramatically after the bearish January USDA Crop Production and Supply-Demand reports. The most common question that came up was "can the USDA corn production number be right?" My answer is that it is expensive to bet against the USDA numbers. I have watched the grain markets for 35 years, analyzed the USDA reports during that time and I have traded commodities for those 35 years. The USDA track record is not perfect but it has been very accurate most years and is our best source of fundamental information.